The Integration of Simulation Models for Complex Evaluation of Different Forest Ecosystem Services: Methodological Approaches
Grabarnik P.Ya.1, Chertov O.G.2, Chumachenko S.I.3, Shanin V.N.1,4,5, Khanina L.G.5, Bobrovskiy M.V.1,5, Bykhovets S.S.1, Frolov P.V.1
1 Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Russia
2University of Applied Sciences Bingen, Bingen am Rhein, Germany
3Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Mytischi, Russia
4 Centre for Forest Ecology and Productivity of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
5 Institute of Mathematical Problems of Biology RAS – the Branch of the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Russia
Abstract. To solve the problems of modeling complex ecological, socio-ecological and economic systems, a large number of computer models have been developed, from the simplest ones, which only roughly described the system under investigation, to fairly detailed ones, which allow for studying the behavior of a great number of interacting elements simultaneously. The development of views on the structure and patterns of ecosystem functioning, the improvement of computer technology, programming technologies, and the advanced mathematical theories create the background for a new stage in the development of the modeling in ecology. If earlier mathematical models, being very generalized, were created by individual scientists or small research groups, at present the development of complex models is impossible without utilizing the experience of many research teams using a diverse arsenal of methods and knowledge accumulated in forest science, ecology, plant physiology, soil science, climatology, and other sciences. As a part of the task of integrating several environmental models, a software and hardware solution was developed based on a special data exchange protocol, and methodological foundations were developed for the model integration. A system based on the dynamic FORRUS-S forest stand model, the Romul_Hum soil organic matter dynamics model, the SCLISS soil climate statistical generator, and the BioCalc biodiversity estimation for integrated assessment of the trade-offs and synergies dynamics at different forest management scenarios has been created. Using this system of models, a prediction of timber production, carbon accumulation in soil organic matter, and biodiversity dynamics was made for large forest area.
Key words: forest ecosystems, dynamics models, silvicultural models, soil models, process-based models, integration.